How the Russian-Georgian Conflict Benefits Russia and the Putin-Medvedev duo

Good Cop President Medvedev, Bad Cop Prime Minister Putin

If you haven’t been following the recent conflict in Georgia between itself and Russia look at the time line here. Now that both sides have signed a truce it appears the conflict could be at an end. Although the fighting has currently come to an end, the tension between Russia, the break away areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Georgia will continue to be in place. While that is apparent to pretty much everyone, it is less apparent why the crisis erupted so suddenly. The answer is locked away in Russian Prime Minister Putin’s mind. The Georgian-Russian situation was always on the forefront of Putin’s regional policy along with Czech Republic. But, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are a very interest situation in the matter of the citizens that occupy those lands. Most of the citizens are Russian citizens or have Russian issued passports and have chosen to align themselves with Russia and against the pro-Western Georgia. While Georgia has attempted to make concessions to these regions, Russia has continually egged the regions on and offered them aid and protection to continue rebelling against Georgia. As you can tell the political and social differences between Georgia and the breakaway regions erupted into a frenzied weekend.

Georgia’s inability to control the breakaway regions and Russia’s ability to capitalize on this is a huge win for Russia. Click on to find out why.

Besides the obvious militaristic win on Russia’s behalf (I’m sorry, but Georgia should have known that Russia would come with nothing but the whole kit to defend its people), Russia has won on a number of fronts.

First off, Georgia has been putting all efforts into becoming a member of NATO. This never sat well with Russia because having a NATO (Western) protected state right on its border has never sat well with Russia. So the chance to destabilize Georgia was the perfect opportunity for Russia to seize. Georgia will not be a NATO member in the future in my opinion. To be a NATO member your nation must be deemed stable by NATO itself. For Georgia to stabilize in NATO’s eyes it must resolve the issue between itself and South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That is no small task for Georgia at this point. To resolve those issues Georgia basically has to let the territories take Georgian land or ask Russia for help in the situation and afterwards Russia wouldn’t let them join NATO still. Georgia was the US pet project for NATO membership and Russia has destroyed the US and Georgia’s dream in one fell swoop that also served as a sign towards the US and any other Western power to not mess with any former Soviet States as Russia still seeks to force its influence over the region.

Second Point. Putin and Medvedev have shown an interesting strategy in a Good Cop/Bad Cop routine. Look at my last blog and how Putin used his influence to take down an entire energy giant in Russia and how Medvedev condemned the actions as bad for Russia. Classic Good Cop/Bad Cop. And now, Putin is the figurehead that declared war and Medvedev is the one that ended it. I don’t know what the tag team is planning to do with this routine, but whatever it is, it will be powerful. Although in my last blog I said that the tensions between the two could signal a separation, but could that just be a public facade? Possibly. There are still plenty of differences between the two, but the good/bad routine could be the most beneficial for both and the Russian Federation as a whole.

Thirdly and last point. This situation served as a warning shot from Russia. They have used this situation as the opportunity to say that they are back and as powerful as ever. The international community must heed this warning as one of the most important shots fired. This is something Russia has been working towards since the collapse of the Soviet Union. They want to be a superpower once again and this attack on Georgia showed that they mean business and that they are willing to act swiftly and powerfully to get their point across if needed. I believe the lack of intervention on behalf of the international community shows that they are taking the Russian threat seriously and they know that Russia means business.

It is a win on multiple fronts for Russia. They are on the rise and will be a superpower once again more quickly than anyone could have ever imagined.

This blog took awhile from the time of the start of the conflict till after it was over. I spoke with many people about the issue and while explaining my thoughts on the Russian side of things many thought I was attempting to defend the actions of Russia. In no way, shape, or form am I defending the actions of Russia. I am against war and do not think this situation was handled correctly on any side. Remember that Georgia acted first in this conflict by assaulting South Ossetia and that Russia was defending their citizens. But, the Russian push into Georgian territory was also unnecessary. In this blog I am merely stating what I believe is a huge victory for Russia on many issues. There is no defense of any involved parties in this post, just my opinion on the Russian victory and the reasoning behind their actions. -Derek