Sorry about the lack of posting here. This past year has been full of ups and downs and I’m already into the next school year. For my American Presidency class we have to keep a blog. So for this semester I will be blogging here: http://dnuzumpres.wordpress.com/

-Derek

I would like to apologize to my readers for lack of posts lately. I have been very busy here at Whitworth and many of my discussions on topics that I write on have been interpersonal with my peers and professors in an out of classes. I hope to blog some in the coming weeks, but this is not a promise. So, if you don’t see much you now know why.

Thank you for reading my previous blogs and I hope to have much more for you in the future.

Good Cop President Medvedev, Bad Cop Prime Minister Putin

If you haven’t been following the recent conflict in Georgia between itself and Russia look at the time line here. Now that both sides have signed a truce it appears the conflict could be at an end. Although the fighting has currently come to an end, the tension between Russia, the break away areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and Georgia will continue to be in place. While that is apparent to pretty much everyone, it is less apparent why the crisis erupted so suddenly. The answer is locked away in Russian Prime Minister Putin’s mind. The Georgian-Russian situation was always on the forefront of Putin’s regional policy along with Czech Republic. But, South Ossetia and Abkhazia are a very interest situation in the matter of the citizens that occupy those lands. Most of the citizens are Russian citizens or have Russian issued passports and have chosen to align themselves with Russia and against the pro-Western Georgia. While Georgia has attempted to make concessions to these regions, Russia has continually egged the regions on and offered them aid and protection to continue rebelling against Georgia. As you can tell the political and social differences between Georgia and the breakaway regions erupted into a frenzied weekend.

Georgia’s inability to control the breakaway regions and Russia’s ability to capitalize on this is a huge win for Russia. Click on to find out why.

Besides the obvious militaristic win on Russia’s behalf (I’m sorry, but Georgia should have known that Russia would come with nothing but the whole kit to defend its people), Russia has won on a number of fronts.

First off, Georgia has been putting all efforts into becoming a member of NATO. This never sat well with Russia because having a NATO (Western) protected state right on its border has never sat well with Russia. So the chance to destabilize Georgia was the perfect opportunity for Russia to seize. Georgia will not be a NATO member in the future in my opinion. To be a NATO member your nation must be deemed stable by NATO itself. For Georgia to stabilize in NATO’s eyes it must resolve the issue between itself and South Ossetia and Abkhazia. That is no small task for Georgia at this point. To resolve those issues Georgia basically has to let the territories take Georgian land or ask Russia for help in the situation and afterwards Russia wouldn’t let them join NATO still. Georgia was the US pet project for NATO membership and Russia has destroyed the US and Georgia’s dream in one fell swoop that also served as a sign towards the US and any other Western power to not mess with any former Soviet States as Russia still seeks to force its influence over the region.

Second Point. Putin and Medvedev have shown an interesting strategy in a Good Cop/Bad Cop routine. Look at my last blog and how Putin used his influence to take down an entire energy giant in Russia and how Medvedev condemned the actions as bad for Russia. Classic Good Cop/Bad Cop. And now, Putin is the figurehead that declared war and Medvedev is the one that ended it. I don’t know what the tag team is planning to do with this routine, but whatever it is, it will be powerful. Although in my last blog I said that the tensions between the two could signal a separation, but could that just be a public facade? Possibly. There are still plenty of differences between the two, but the good/bad routine could be the most beneficial for both and the Russian Federation as a whole.

Thirdly and last point. This situation served as a warning shot from Russia. They have used this situation as the opportunity to say that they are back and as powerful as ever. The international community must heed this warning as one of the most important shots fired. This is something Russia has been working towards since the collapse of the Soviet Union. They want to be a superpower once again and this attack on Georgia showed that they mean business and that they are willing to act swiftly and powerfully to get their point across if needed. I believe the lack of intervention on behalf of the international community shows that they are taking the Russian threat seriously and they know that Russia means business.

It is a win on multiple fronts for Russia. They are on the rise and will be a superpower once again more quickly than anyone could have ever imagined.

This blog took awhile from the time of the start of the conflict till after it was over. I spoke with many people about the issue and while explaining my thoughts on the Russian side of things many thought I was attempting to defend the actions of Russia. In no way, shape, or form am I defending the actions of Russia. I am against war and do not think this situation was handled correctly on any side. Remember that Georgia acted first in this conflict by assaulting South Ossetia and that Russia was defending their citizens. But, the Russian push into Georgian territory was also unnecessary. In this blog I am merely stating what I believe is a huge victory for Russia on many issues. There is no defense of any involved parties in this post, just my opinion on the Russian victory and the reasoning behind their actions. -Derek

They are friends now, but could differing agendas tear them apart?

The honeymoon could be over as President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin’s differences are starting to come out. Putin’s recent comments regarding steel and coal giant Mechel’s primary owner Igor Zyuzin’s ill health. Mechel’s stock value took a slight dip after those comments and just as the company and its PR department recovered, Putin dropped a bomb on the company and the financial sector. Putin accused Mechel of evading taxes by charging less for foreign sales than domestic sales. Well I’m sure you can guess that the stock of the company once again plummeted. This didn’t sit too well with Medvedev to say the least.

Click to find out more.

Putin and Medvedev haven’t been seen very often together since the May 7th inauguration of the President and a new poll says most Russians think Medvedev is not in charge. 9 percent believe he is in charge, 36 percent say that Putin is still in charge and 47 percent say the two share power equally. This doesn’t bode well for Medevdev as he launches his new anti-corruption campaign. Medvedev will need as many supporters as he can get while he slowly tries to distance himself from Putin. Regarding the Mechel accusations, Medvedev said that Putin’s comments caused ‘nightmares’ for business in Russia. Well that certainly isn’t the typical way to thank the man who gave you your position.

Don’t think I’m in support of Putin here. Not at all. While I applaud his efforts to prevent tax evasion in Russia, a bigger priority is Medvedev’s campaign against corruption at the government level. Medvedev must fire warning shots like the nightmare comment to successfully step out of Putin’s shadow and prevent an all out war with Putin and staunch division in Russian Politics. Putin is a very strong adversary who controls the United Russia political party and thus two-thirds in the lower house of parliament and could start a campaign to impeach Medvedev. The President has already said that he will be shaking up the bureaucracy that he inherited from Putin that frequently awarded posts to the highest bidder.

Medvedev is apparently going in the direction of a shake up as soon as this fall as a component of his anti-corruption campaign. Any supporters that he can pick up from Putin along the way will be a great asset as well. The only way for Medvedev to succeed is to gather as much support and power as he can. Distancing himself from Putin will be a long, laborious process if it is going to be done without a nationwide struggle that would hurt more than help. Medvedev is on the right course and time line as of right now in my opinion and he could become a fantastic President and Russian hero if everything goes right. I pray that everything does not just for the sake of a corrupt Russia, but for the sake of the international community because a Russian power struggle will hurt everyone in the long run.

Russian newspaper Izvestia reported than an unnamed Russian defense ministry spokesperson hinted at Russian presence in Cuba once again and this time in response to the US missile defense shield. The spokesperson said “While they are deploying the missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, our strategic bombers will already be landing in Cuba.” Yea, the 60’s called and they want their strategy back. But, some are taking the threat a little more seriously than others. General Norton Schwartz (Current nominee for Air Force Chief of Staff) and seemed to take the threat pretty seriously:

“I certainly would offer best military advice that we should engage the Russians not to pursue that approach. [...] And if they did, I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America.”

My opinion after the break.

Really people? I know Russia talks a hard line, but I feel like Putin, Medvedev, and Cuba would never resort to this in the present conditions. The Russian Defense Ministry has denied any possibility of this and has accused Izvestia of fabricating the story sparking somewhat of a media scandal for the paper. It seems like Cubans agree with me. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez might be willing though.

The current political climate for any of the three involved countries is not the appropriate time for another missile crisis. The US and Russia may have opposing viewpoints on many issues, but they are still friends and will continue to be far into the future from my point of view.

President Chávez and President Medvedev (doesn't he look oh so smug?)

While Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is on his European tour he stopped in Russia to meet with President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin and chat about the economy and a strategic alliance to protect Venezuela from the US (I’m sorry did it just get a little Cold War-ish in here?). Chávez had breezed through the country cutting numerous business deals between his nation and oil/energy companies and the Russian Federation. Russia has seen a huge economic boom due to the outsourcing of its oil. This is very similar to the situation as these two oil rich nations see the benefits fill the state coffers. While in Russia Chávez said “The ruble must become a world currency, the dollar must not become a world currency.” This echoes Russian policy as a way for the ruble to become a major reserve currency to oppose the weakened dollar.

More after the link.

I am unsure of how I feel about this. I want to support it due to the stabilization and strengthening of the Russian economy. The current exchange rate is 1 USD to just over 23 RUB. When I went to Russia 4 years ago (Really that long?! Sounds like time to go again.) I was getting about 1 USD to 31-33 RUB. This is a dramatic change in just 4 short years. Some may just blame it on the current economic crisis, but I believe it is a combination of that and the improving Russian economy. Russia is experiencing its first boom since the economic crisis of 1998 and 10 years later it appears to be on the right track to continue this upward trend.
But, will the Ruble be a major reserve currency/world currency? I just don’t think it is in the cards. But, I am also no economist. We are all uncertain in this time of economic woe and anything could happen.

This article is a little outdated (2004) but I feel like it still has some value on the topic of dollar/ruble connections.

President Bush's reaction if he were to get charged. "Aww crap what now?"

An interesting article over on Al Jazeera by an American, Middle East history professor poses the question of applying the charges against Sudanese President Bashir to President Bush. This has always been a small question since the United States unsigned the ICC Statute of Rome. The Bush administration basically unsigned the statute to protect its service members and other foreign nationals from any ICC prosecution in the case of a potential ‘problem’ (aka conduct that would be called a human rights violation or war crimes). And, since the US is not a signatory of the statute they are not under the jurisdiction of the ICC because it is a court independent of the UN and you must opt-in to its jurisdiction. Sudan is not a signatory, so why does it have multiple cases against members of the ruling party? The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1593 in 2005 referring the case to the ICC and giving it jurisdiction over the matter.

So even though the ICC doesn’t have jurisdiction over the United States or any of its actions, you still have to think ‘what if?’ Click on to read more.

In Prosecutor Ocampo’s report to the ICC the following line is written:

“Bashir was directly responsible [for the activities of the militias]. He is the president. He is the commander-in-chief. Those are not just formal words. He used the whole state apparatus. He used the army; he enrolled the militia/Janjaweed. They all report to him. They all obey him. His control is absolute.”

If you think about it, President Bush is Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of the US. In a way he is responsible for the action of our forces. Technically every military service person reports to the President and only him. A service member’s superiors are just doing the bidding of their superiors and that all leads to President Bush. I mean Bush went directly against the UN when the Security Council denied the US request to invade Iraq. A direct violation of the international communities opinion that should be respected no matter what the situation is. Add in the US torturing of prisoners and numerous human rights abuses this doesn’t look good for Bush or the US.

But will anything happen? In my opinion I really don’t think so. Bush is on his way out and the amount of effort that it would take to even get the ICC to be able to look at the situation while the US is still not a signatory would be immense. Bush will get off easy while the Bashir case will set the precedent for charging heads of state for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. the Bashir case has been a long time coming and thankfully is finally coming to fruition. Will President Bashir be arrested anytime soon of the ICC Judges approve the arrest warrant? No, he may never be arrested in my opinion. But his travel will be severely limited since he could be arrested if he travels to a country that is a member of the ICC and nations will be less likely to deal with a nation that has a standing head of state with a warrant. With Bashir’s travel and diplomatic options further limited his country and party will become desperate and hopefully something miraculous will occur to get him out of his ruthless authoritarian position.

Durban's Senzangakhona Stadium

Durban, South Africa may legalize prostitution for the FIFA World Cup in 2010. This possible legislation was initiated way back in January by George Lekgetho, a member of SA Parliament, and argued that prostitution is legal in Germany, the 2006 World Cup Host, and that legalization would mean less rape and “added tax revenue.” Although most of his peers laughed off the idea back then, it is slowly gaining ground in SA due to a fairly large prostitution population for the nation’s third largest city and that legalization advocates claim would better be protected if their work was legalized.

This could be true, but many of the working girls are at the mercy of their pimps and will probably end up just as neglected as before. My opinions after the link.

While legalization could protect these girls, I think the only people that are going to see a benefit are the pimps and the government that collects taxes on the prostitution. There is also another major issue with legalizing prostitution in South Africa. The ridiculous AIDS rate in the country would be a huge barrier to get over. I don’t really see an effective way to get around the AIDS issue. Do you only legalize the uninfected workers thus providing a license to perform? Where would the money come from for testing all these girl and what happens if they don’t pass the test? I would assume they would just go back to performing illegally, thus making the whole situation a waste.

I am against this legislation from multiple standpoints. Morally I don’t approve of prostitution, I don’t think many do. From a political and economical standpoint I feel that it is too much effort with not enough benefits for the SA government. I say police it as much as you can, but any risk that a person makes by purchasing the entertainment is just that, a huge risk of STDs and the potential of being caught by the SA authorities and being at the mercy of the government there. All I have to say is if you gotta have ‘it,’ wrap it before you tap it. Maybe even wrap it twice. Please don’t help spread any STDs, especially HIV/AIDS, the epidemic is already out of control and we must do everything we can to help everyone we can.

For more HIV/AIDS awareness/prevention campaigns check out the following:

(RED) Campaign

46664 – Nelson Mandela’s HIV/AIDS awareness/prevention campaign

Global Justice

French Urban Affairs Minister Ms. Fadela Amara

While supporting a court’s decision to deny French citizenship to a Moroccan women, Faiza M (who wears a burqa), France’s Urban Affairs minister Fadela Amara slammed the Muslim burqa dress style. The court ruled that the burqa wasn’t compatible with French values. 32 year old Faiza has lived in France since 2000 with her French national husband and 3 French-born children and says that she has never challenged French fundamentals. Amara says “The burqa is a prison, it’s a straitjacket” and that “It is not a religious insignia but the insignia of a totalitarian political project that advocates inequality between the sexes and which is totally devoid of democracy.” She feels that the court’s ruling will “dissuade certain fanatics from imposing the burqa on their wives.”

You may think Ms. Amara is just anti-Muslim, when in fact she is a French-born Muslim with Algerian parents. So I guess in a way she is entitled to denounce parts of her own religion if she wants. My opinions after the link.

While I think Ms. Amara has complete rights to denounce parts of her own religion. But to impose her views on others in her religion? Not so much. A nation like France denying citizenship based on attire? Definitely not. I don’t know much about French law and will never claim that I do (unless I for some reason study it), but I feel like this really doesn’t promote great freedoms like France typically does. I feel like Faiza M should be granted citizenship seeing as she has been a law-abiding resident for some time now and the burqa really isn’t hurting anyone except maybe for herself. According to the BBC article, social services reports said she lived in “total submission to her male relatives”.

This is her prerogative and her religion, she should be able to practice whatever religion however she wants to as long as it is in a lawful fashion. If there is a law in France prohibiting burqas, then I guess she is out of bounds, but until that time she is being stripped of her rights as a human being.

Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev

President Dimitry Medvedev released his new foreign policy strategy today and at the same time gave his Prime Minister (and former President) Vladimir Putin a role in foreign policy. This is a reversal on the President’s post-election speech where he stated that foreign policy control would remain strictly in Presidential hands. The Prime Minister’s new powers allow him to implement foreign policy, a power thought to be only for the President. Other than this change, the strategy is very similar to then-President Putin’s strategy set forth in 2000. This strategy also puts a focus on further relations with the European Union as an economic and foreign policy partner while specifically mentioning France, Germany, and Italy among countries that Medvedev wants to advance relations with. Medvedev’s strategy mentions mending relations with Britain. This is especially important as the ties have become strained by the murder of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko (which Britian has blamed Russia under Putin for) and the treatment of British investors at TNK-BP (joint venture between Russian TNK and British BP oil companies). Medvedev must work to clear Russia in the murder of Litvinenko and to rebuild ties with Britain and BP. The strategy puts a focus on Russia being a major player in a multipolar world where the UN and international law reign over all. This focus on international law comes as no surprise due to President Medvedev’s history as a lawyer.

This emphasis on the UN and international law is what I like most of the strategy. Find out why by clicking below.

The focus on international law and ruling bodies like the UN will become very important for Russia and other nations as the need for a governing body like the UN is seen on a daily basis. Maybe the Iraq War would have gone quicker if the US had followed the UN’s decision to not enter at the time that we did. I know that is just a hypothetical, but it is also just one example of many. The UN can be used to prevent/stop long and bloody conflicts as long as everyone plays along. The biggest example of the needing to play along is seen in UNAMID. This force is the UN mission in Darfur and is currently undermanned and under equipped. 26,000 personnel were promised to the region while only about 9600 are there currently and 200 non-essential will be pulled out soon as the region become more dangerous.

If the UN was running at full capacity and with full dedication from its member state, it very well may be able to successfully perform its mission of peace and security, defending human rights, and facilitating international law. Something it has attempted to perform for many years and has done a decent job so far, but I believe this is a prime time for the international community to rally together and make a big push for the UN as the only international governing body.